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The world is swimming in $244 trillion of debt

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2015Visitors crowd an artificial wave swimming pool at a tourist resort to escape the summer heat in Daying county of Suining, Sichuan province, China, July 11, 2015.

  • Global debt is hovering near an all-time high at $244 trillion, the Institute of International Finance said in a new report.
  • The corporate sector has accounted for a third of global debt growth since 2016, placing the ratio of corporate debt to gross domestic product at a record high. 
  • In a separate report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch distributed Tuesday, corporate leverage was found to be the primary concern among investors.

Global debt is hovering near a record at $244 trillion, the Institute of International Finance said in a new report.

The figure — although it has dropped slightly from the $247.7 trillion record high in early 2018 — underscores investors' heightened concerns about ballooning debt at a late phase in the global economic cycle.

Put another way, global debt is now more than three times the size of the world economy. The level of debt around the world has topped 318% of global gross domestic product, just below the all-time high of 320% in mid-2016. These elevated levels come despite a "cyclical pickup in global growth" over the last two years, the IIF said.

"From a broader perspective, higher levels of debt are typically related with higher levels of systematic vulnerabilities and reduce sovereigns and corporates capacity to absorb shocks during times of financial stress," Emre Tiftik, deputy director of global policy initiatives at the IIF, told Business Insider.

Exactly what kind of debt is growing — in which currencies it's denominated, when it matures, and which sectors it comes from — is important to consider, Tiftik noted.

"For example, increased reliance on short-term debt and foreign-currency debt leaves sovereigns and firms exposed to sudden shifts in global risk sentiment and could generate the most contagion regardless of the nature of the shock."

More granularly, corporate debt has accounted for a third of the rise in total global debt since 2016, the IIF said, placing the ratio of corporate debt to GDP at a record high. The corporate sector, ex-financials, and governments around the world have together accounted for over three-fourths of global debt growth since the financial crisis. 

"While the surge in corporate debt was concentrated in emerging markets, government debt rose faster in mature markets," Tiftik wrote in the report.

Total global debt.

In a separate report released Tuesday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch found corporate leverage is the top concern among investors who, collectively, manage $645 billion in assets.

The bank's investment strategists described fund managers' concerns over corporate debt as "extremely elevated."

Read more: Bank of America asked a group of investors overseeing $645 billion how companies should be spending their money — and the responses show just how scared they are of a credit meltdown

Household debt is another closely monitored measure of economic health, and the IIF specifically highlighted that measure in emerging markets.

Household debt in those markets including China, India, Mexico, and Korea, topped $12 trillion in the third-quarter of 2018. The IIF described the growth in emerging-market household debt as "rapid."

Several more mature markets including France, Belgium, and Finland, have also seen significant growth in household debt, the report said.

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AI 101: How learning computers are becoming smarter

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artificial intelligence social network eter9

Many companies use the term artificial intelligence, or AI, as a way to generate excitement for their products and to present themselves as on the cutting edge of tech development.

But what exactly is artificial intelligence? What does it involve? And how will it help the development of future generations?

Find out the answers to these questions and more in AI 101, a brand new FREE report from Business Insider Intelligence, Business Insider's premium research service, that describes how AI works and looks at its present and potential future applications.

To get your copy of the FREE slide deck, simply click here.

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Goldman Sachs says the falling stock market has super rich people spending less on yachts, jewellery and private jets

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private jet

  • The super rich are spending less on yachts, jewellery and private jets thanks to recent falls in the stock market, Goldman Sachs says.
  • "We find large effects of the stock market on luxury spending," Goldman economist Daan Struyven wrote on Wednesday.
  • Struyven says his team's analysis is consistent with a "substantial" negative wealth effect on a measurement called the personal consumption expenditure.

The stock market and spending on luxury goods are highly correlated, so the lower the market goes, so goes spending. 

That's according to Goldman Sachs economist Daan Struyven, who wrote in a note on Wednesday that the dusk of a near decade-long bull run in the US equity market will weigh heavily on spending among the wealthy, negatively impacting the world's biggest economy.

"We find large effects of the stock market on luxury spending," says Struyven, who sees a strong relationship between stock price changes and spending on "jewelry and watches, pleasure boats and pleasure aircraft."

Goldman Sachs

Struyven says his team's analysis is consistent with a "substantial" negative wealth effect on a measurement called the personal consumption expenditure the component statistic for consumption in GDP.

He says he expects that PCE measurement to drop up to 2.5% this year "despite healthy labor income growth, an elevated saving rate, and cheaper oil."

"Equity holdings as a share of income have risen substantially for the middle, upper-middle and upper wealth groups," he wrote.

"Therefore, the hit to the wealth level from a 1% decline in stock prices is now about three times larger than in the late '80s for the top 10% of households, and a third larger for those in the 50-90th percentiles."

Read more:From hiding their mansions on Google Maps to building $500,000 panic rooms, rich people are sparing no expense to keep their lives private and secure

While stock ownership is usually concentrated among the rich, theories abound to the relationship between the stock market and the economy.

Bloomberg, for example, pointed out a caveat to Goldman's take, saying that the National Bureau of Economic Research in 2013 found "at best weak evidence of a link between stock-market wealth and consumption." The housing market has more of a wealth effect, it said.

Goldman Sachs

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Here comes Goldman Sachs... (GS)

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David Solomon

Goldman Sachs is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings later today, with analysts predicting adjusted profit of $4.53 a share, on a 19% drop in adjusted net income to $1.83 billion. It's also the first quarter of results for new CEO David Solomon. 

Here are some other numbers to watch: 

  • Revenue: Analysts predict Goldman to bring in $7.5 billion in fourth-quarter revenue.
  • Expenses: Analysts forecast non-interest costs of $5.2 billion. 
  • Institutional client services: KBW analysts are predicting a meager quarter for Goldman's trading business, with revenue of $2.3 billion. They expect just $752 million to come from the fixed-income trading desks, once one of Wall Street's top performers. 
  • Investment banking division: KBW analysts predict revenue of $1.8 billion, including $1.1 billion from advisory fees alone. 
  • Consumer and investment management division: KBW analysts predict $1.8 billion in revenue.
  • Investing & Lending segment: KBW predicts revenue of $1.4 billion. 

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The downtrodden pound could be a big winner from the UK's Brexit chaos, but investors are expecting a bumpy ride (GBP)

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Brexit People's Vote protest

  • The pound looks set to rally in the chaotic aftermath of Prime Minister Theresa May's historic Brexit vote defeat.
  • May's defeat makes the following more likely: a no-deal Brexit, a second referendum, or Britain never leaving the EU at all. That latter two would be a godsend for pound bulls.
  • Traders also expect major bouts of volatility going forward, as uncertainty dominates the newsflow.
  • Follow the pound's movements live at Markets Insider.

In the hours before British Prime Minister Theresa May's biggest ever defeat in the House of Commons on Tuesday evening, the pound was down as much as 1.5% against the dollar. But after the vote, it jumped, eventually ending up in positive territory on the day.

May's rejection by more than two thirds of lawmakers, including more than 100 from her own party, threw Britain's exit from the European Union into disarray. Such uncertainty in British politics should be terrible news for the British pound, a currency which has endured more than two years of speculation and hearsay.

But the vote makes the following more likely: a no-deal Brexit, a second referendum, or Britain never leaving the EU at all. That latter two would be a godsend for pound bulls, and is why, following on from Tuesday's jump, currency analysts say that the pound could continue its rally. 

Read more:Theresa May's historic defeat on her deal means a Brexit delay is almost certain

"The FX market has found a silver-lining and sterling has strengthened," Petr Krpata, currency analyst at ING wrote on Wednesday morning.

"This is likely a function of ... increased likelihood that Prime Minister Theresa May is likely to have to (eventually) seek cross-party support for the next deal, with the perceived odds of Article 50 extension rising."

Krpata goes on to argue that once the Brexit outcome is sorted, unless Britain ends up with no deal, the pound could rally sharply, owing to it being the most undervalued of all the major currencies.

"We see material upside to the heavily undervalued GBP (the cheapest in the G10 FX space) by year-end, as by then we expect a market-friendly resolution of the Brexit stalemate," he wrote.

Read more:A Brexit-backing hedge fund titan now says Britain won't actually leave the EU, and is betting big on the pound

Richard Falkenhäll, senior FX strategist at Swedish bank SEB echoed Krpata's sentiments in an email sent prior to the vote on Tuesday evening, saying that any development which increases market perceptions that the UK could stay in the EU will boost the pound.

"From a GBP perspective, any alternative going forward that increases the likelihood that the UK in fact stays a member of the EU, like a referendum on the government agreement or even a new election demanding an extension of the withdrawal period, is therefore likely to be supportive for the GBP," he wrote.

"Although uncertainty is bad for the economy and bad for financial markets, in this case uncertainty may in fact be a positive factor for the British currency as it increases the likelihood the UK will remain an EU-member."

Whatever happens, expect volatility

Screenshot 2019 01 16 at 10.26.30

But one thing seems certain in the eyes of most in the currency markets: volatility.

"Uncertainty will stay high and UK markets volatile," Dean Turner, UK Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management said.

"The continued absence of clarity is likely to lead to further volatility in the near term," Suresh Tantia, investment strategist at Credit Suisse added.

The pound on Wednesday was mainly flat, trading higher by less than 0.1%. Overnight, the CBOE BPVIX, an index which measures volatility in the pound dollar exchange rate, dropped around 5% from its Tuesday peak.

SEE ALSO: Follow the pound live at Markets Insider

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NOW WATCH: The equity chief at $6.3 trillion BlackRock weighs in on the trade war, a possible recession, and offers her best investing advice for a tricky 2019 landscape

Roger Federer has 15 near-perfect qualities but 2 glaring weaknesses, according to a tennis research group

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Roger Federer weaknesses

  • Roger Federer is pretty much perfect when it comes to 15 key skills, according to a leading tennis analysis firm.
  • But the 37-year-old veteran also has two glaring weaknesses.
  • Federer is cruising through the 2019 Australian Open, a tournament he is hoping to win for a record seventh time.
  • Regardless of his age, he is one of the competition's favorites because of incredible skill ratings in departments like killer instinct, rally craft, and serve.

Roger Federer is the most "technically sound" athlete in tennis but, at 37, there are two glaring weaknesses in his game, according to leading sports analysis firm Game Insight Group (GIG).

Federer is currently competing in this month's Australian Open, a tournament he has won six times already, and will be hoping to go all the way and claim a record seventh at the competition's final in Melbourne on Sunday, January 27.

He was recently heralded as the "greatest of all time" by the former world number one women's player Serena Williams, and is a player who has set many "unbeatable" records, so it seems natural that GIG attempted to isolate the skills that have made him the player he is today.

GIG analysed Federer's "player DNA" by focusing on four key skill areas in tennis — technical, tactical, mental, and physical. Within these, Federer has finely-tuned 15 tennis skills that are borderline perfect.

Here they are:

  • Technical
    • Backhand = 92/100
    • Serve = 93/100
    • Forehand = 94/100
  • Tactical
    • Court control = 91/100
    • Time control = 92/100
    • Wide defence = 94/100
    • Rally craft = 95/100
    • Attacking balance = 98/100
  • Mental
    • Grit = 92/100
    • Clutch = 98/100
    • Winning edge = 98/100
    • Killer instinct = 99/100
  • Physical
    • Repeated sprints = 93/100
    • Match endurance = 93/100
    • Agility = 99/100

Roger Federer

'Federer's greatest strength is his mind'

Technically speaking, Federer "rates number one in the men's game," according to GIG, because of the potency of his first serve. His forehand is also regarded as the third best in the world.

The Swiss plays second fiddle only to Rafa Nadal when it comes to on-court tactics as Federer's "ability to weigh up risk versus reward when looking to attack, as well as his ability to withstand opponents in long rallies" make him highly impactful during matches.

His mentality, particularly during high-stakes moments, cannot be overlooked. "Federer's greatest strength is his mind," GIG stated. "If you win as often — and for as long — as Federer has, it’s pretty clear that you can hold your nerve when it counts."

Federer's excellence does not end there. He ranks highly when it comes to agility, repeated sprints, and match endurance when compared against all other male players.

But not all of his physical attributes are still on point.

Roger Federer weakness

Not even Federer is perfect

Federer's overall physical "DNA" is let down by poor acceleration, which GIG rates as 35/100, and inferior foot speed, rated as 21/100.

And the reason for this is clear — he is 37 years old and is a slower athlete than he was when he won his first major 16 years ago.

Regardless, he compensates for this declining prowess with near-perfect scores in many other areas. Combined, this still makes him one of the best players on the ATP Tour.

The player himself has demonstrated this with his exceptional start to the 2019 Australian Open.

Federer, the third seed in the tournament, has not dropped a single set yet and easily dealt with Denis Istomin on Monday, before a composed straight sets victory over Dan Evans on Wednesday.

He is next in action on Friday when he takes on Taylor Fritz but, on current form, the veteran will be expected to easily progress into the fourth round.

SEE ALSO: Serena Williams praised Roger Federer as 'the greatest of all time' after losing to him in a historic doubles match

DON'T MISS: Roger Federer cried during an interview when he was asked about the death of his former coach: 'I've never broken down like this'

UP NEXT: Serena Williams identified Roger Federer's one 'super underestimated' skill after playing him for the first time

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BlackRock just missed earnings estimates and assets shrunk

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larry fink

  • BlackRock's assets under management fell in the fourth quarter, as institutional investors pulled nearly $35 billion.
  • The firm missed analysts' earnings expectations. 
  • Bright spots included exchange-traded-funds platform iShares, which saw record new money last quarter, and technology services.

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, got just a bit smaller last quarter. 

The firm's assets under management declined 5% year-over-year, to $5.98 trillion, according to fourth-quarter earnings released Monday. 

The New York-based firm missed expectations on earnings, with adjusted earnings per share of $6.08, compared with analysts' predictions of $6.23. 

Here are the rest of the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $3.43 billion, meeting expectations 
  • Net income: $927 million, down 60% year-on-year and missing expectations of $1.1 billion. 
  • Adjusted earnings per share: $6.08, compared to expectations of $6.23
  • Assets under management: $5.98 trillion
  • Total net flows: Inflows of $49.8 billion
    • iShares: Net inflows of $81.4 billion
    • Institutional: Outflows of $34.6 billion

Overall, the firm saw $124 billion of inflows in 2018, including records for iShares and illiquid alternative strategies. Technology service revenue, which accounts for about 6% of the firm's overall revenue, increased 19% last year, on the heels of strong demand for Aladdin and digital wealth technologies, both major growth areas for the firm.

“BlackRock is well positioned to deliver the holistic portfolio solutions, technology services and strategic counsel that clients increasingly are seeking, especially in the face of meaningful headwinds for the asset management industry," CEO Larry Fink said in an earnings statement. 

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10 things you need to know before the opening bell (SPY, SPX, QQQ, DIA, NFLX, UAL)

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TSA workers

Here is what you need to know.

  1. Theresa May faces a vote of no confidence. UK Prime Minister Theresa May is fighting for her political life Wednesday as she faces a vote of no confidence following Tuesday's historic Brexit defeat.
  2. The White House acknowledges the government shutdown is causing problems for the US economy. A White House official told INSIDER that an updated internal model most recently estimated that the government shutdown was taking 0.13 percentage points off of quarterly gross domestic product every week.
  3. Snap's CFO is quitting. Snap shares plunged more than 8% late Tuesday after Tim Stone notified the company he was resigning "to pursue other opportunities." Stone is Snap's second chief financial officer to leave in the past eight months.
  4. The world is swimming in a near record $244 trillion of debt. The amount of debt in the world has topped 318% of global gross domestic product and is just below the record high of 320% set in 2016, according to a new report from the Institute of International Finance.
  5. Investors are paying a record premium for the safest stocks. Stock-market investors are paying a 45% premium for low-volatility versus high-volatility names, and Keith Parker, UBS' US head of equity strategy, says there's a more efficient strategy.
  6. Netflix pops after announcing price hikes. Shares rallied more than 6.5% Tuesday after the streaming giant announced it was hiking prices for its plans by as much as 18%.
  7. A new strategy propels United Continental to an earnings beat. The airline earned an adjusted $2.41 a share in the fourth quarter — easily beating the $2.04 consensus by IBES data from Refinitiv — as United Airlines won back customers by flying more flights out of its main hubs, Reuters says.
  8. Stock markets around the world were mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0.27%) led the gains in Asia, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was little changed in Europe. The S&P 500 was set to open flat near 2,609.
  9. Big banks report. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs were among the names reporting their quarterly results ahead of the opening bell.
  10. US economic data keeps coming. Import and export prices were to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the NAHB Housing Market Index was set to cross the wires at 10 a.m. ET. The Fed's Beige Book was due out at 2 p.m. ET.

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NOW WATCH: The equity chief at $6.3 trillion BlackRock weighs in on the trade war, a possible recession, and offers her best investing advice for a tricky 2019 landscape


An artist is launching an Instagram-friendly black-and-white wedding chapel in Vegas where couples can get married and take photos from $250

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chapel with people

  • Graphic designer and visual artist Joshua Vides is known for his black-and-white work.
  • The latest installment of his "Reality to Idea" project is an Instagrammer's dream.
  • Vides is launching an 800 sq. ft wedding chapel inside the Palms Casino Resort on Friday, January 18.
  • The chapel can be booked out from $250 for photos or a full-blown ceremony and reception.

There are few things couples won't do in the name of getting the perfect wedding photo.

From a kiss on the edge of a cliff to a walk across sand dunes, some of the most stunning pictures of newlyweds are taken in incredible locations all over the world.

However, it turns out getting the perfect snap for the 'gram might be easier than you think.

Read more:38 heartwarming, jaw-dropping, and award-winning wedding photos from around the world

Graphic designer and visual artist Joshua Vides, known for his black-and-white collaborations with the likes of Lebron James and Takashi Murakami, is launching an 800 sq. ft wedding chapel designed perfectly for Instagram — and you can find it inside the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas from Friday, January 18.

chapel outside view

Inspired by one of the city's most iconic venues, "A Little White Wedding Chapel," the installation titled "Til Death Do Us Part" provides the ideal backdrop for a wedding ceremony or a vow renewal — as well as the ideal Instagram shot.

Vides told INSIDER the popup is the latest part of his ongoing project titled "Reality to Idea."

"When the 'Reality to Idea' concept came to life in March 2017, it was because I needed to make a drastic change with my creative abilities. I had to pivot my expression," he said. "I didn’t create the concept for Instagram, but once I painted the first object and held [it in my] hand, I immediately recognized Instagram as the vehicle."

He added: "I believe that social media is a tool. Some use it correctly and some for leisure. I like to look at social platforms the same way I look at my tool box. What can I accomplish and express today with what I have right here in front of me that can make an impact."

"Til Death Do Us Part" will be open to the public for photo ops on show nights at the Palms' Pearl Theater, which will be home to a Billy Idol residency from Friday.

However, it can also be booked for private ceremonies — Palms is offering a number of packages at different price points for those interested in tieing the knot here, or at least pretending they did.

The "Our Marriage Looks Perfect — On Instagram" package, which costs $250, allows for an hour in the chapel to take all of the social media photos your heart desires.

couple with rings

For $500, the hotel will throw in an hour-long ceremony as well as time for photos and a bottle of Moet.

ceremony family friends seated

If a sit-down dinner is what you're after, the hotel will arrange a four-course meal for up to 24 people as well as an after party for up to $5,500, while you can nab a night's stay in the "Make Good Choices Suite" (pictured below) as well as a two-hour catered reception from $4,500.

Palms_26225_GoodDecision_Livingroom_v3_NOLOGO

Read more:This iconic Las Vegas hotel's $620 million renovation is transforming it into a 'modern art museum' with pieces from Damien Hirst and Andy Warhol — take a look inside

The immersive pop-up is part of the Palms' $690 million renovation which is seeing it transform into a "modern art museum" with an extensive collection including pieces from the likes of Damien Hirst, Jean-Michel Basquiat, and Andy Warhol.

Those interested in booking the chapel can email palmssalesandcatering@stationcasinos.com.

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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS STARTUPS TO WATCH: The top 5 startups across digital freight services, warehouse robotics, AI, last-mile delivery robotics, and self-driving cars

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  • Artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and self-driving technology are helping the transportation and logistics industry finally transform by cutting costs, optimizing delivery routes, and automating mundane tasks.
  • Startups will be the lynchpin of this transformation because they specifically target areas of need  with cutting-edge solutions.
  • Business Insider Intelligence examined the top 5 startups within five key areas: digital freight services, warehouse robotics, AI for supply chain management, last-mile delivery robotics, and self-driving car software.

Transportation and logistics industries have operated largely the same way for decades. But the surge in e-commerce in the last several years, combined with consumers’ appetite for same-day delivery, has brought us to a tipping point.

Total Logistics Costs

Delivery companies are doing all they can to get orders to customers’ doors as quickly as possible, which has facilitated wholesale changes in how they operate.

Cutting-edge digital solutions (including digital freight services, warehouse robotics, AI for supply chain management, delivery robotics, and autonomous driving software) are forcing traditional delivery companies to either evolve or see their core businesses erode.

Transportation & Logistics Startups to Watch, a new report from Business Insider Intelligence, monitors the biggest change agents in the industry to offer unique insight into the development of the transportation and logistics space at large, and shows how traditional companies are adapting to their new environment.

Want to Learn More?

Business Insider Intelligence's Startups to Watch reports give a high-level overview of the funding trends for startups in a particular coverage area, as well as a list of key startups (by function, what they do, key news, and statistics). Businesses need to understand new competitive threats, technologies, and acquisition opportunities in order to thrive. These reports provide that contextual information in an easy-to-digest manner.

In full, the Transportation & Logistics Startups to Watch report dives into the top 25 companies - five startups across five key disruption areas - that are easing shipping burdens, improving order fulfillment efficiency, optimizing delivery, and automating processes.

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The EU will happily punish delusional Britain for last night's Brexit defeat

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  • Last night's vote defeating Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal seems like a significant event — an emphatic rejection of what the EU wants.
  • From Brussels' point of view, however, nothing has changed.
  • Article 50 is a legal process, not a negotiation. This isn't poker, and Britain has not suddenly been dealt a new set of aces. It's more like a court proceeding, in which the EU is deciding how the UK shall be sentenced.
  • If Britain deludes itself into thinking the EU will start compromising the country could flop out of Europe almost by accident, with no deal — that's the worst-case scenario.

After the historic defeat of Theresa May's Brexit deal in parliament last night, Britain feels different today. We might not know what our future with the EU will look like but one thing is certain: It won't be May's deal.

From Brussels' point of view, however, nothing has changed. Read the statements from European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, European Council President Donald Tusk, European Parliament Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt, and chief negotiator Michel Barnier. "Time is almost up," Juncker said.

They haven't budged an inch.

That is important because there is a huge risk that Britain will delude itself into thinking that last night's vote "changes everything."

This, as warned before, is the "Greek Fallacy."

When Greece went through its debt crisis, trying to avoid a punitive debt bailout from the EU, it held four national elections and one referendum. Each one gave the country a "mandate" to secure a better deal for Greece. The EU ignored each one, and forced the country through an economic crisis worse than the Great Depression to get its money back.

This was described in 2017 by Duncan Robinson, the Brussels correspondent for the Financial Times, as the "Greek Fallacy"— the false belief that a domestic vote somehow gives a national government a stronger negotiating position than before.

It does not.

Article 50 is a legal process, not a negotiation. This isn't a game of poker, and Britain has not suddenly been dealt a new set of aces. It's more like a court proceeding, in which the EU is sitting in judgment of the UK and deciding its sentence. Last night's vote is just a footnote. 

Brussels doesn't care about votes or elections inside individual countries. In fact, its officials work actively to negate them, according to former Greek finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis.

That's because the EU is not structured as a democracy in which power is devolved. Rather, it exists mostly as a system of rules, policies, and laws that are incredibly difficult to change or break. There is no way to negotiate with a body that cannot change its mind if just one of its 28 members won't go along.

We are now at the end of the Article 50 process and Britain is must either change its Brexit red lines, or leave the EU on March 29, according to of the EU's pre-approved options. Those are:

  • May's deal.
  • No deal.
  • Remain in the EU.

May, to her credit, appears to one of few people in the House of Commons who actually understand this. Until yesterday there was no other deal than May's deal on the table. The implication of last night's vote is that only the other two options are now available.

Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn is hoping, somehow, to get a general election that will put him in power and allow him to negotiate a new, better deal. He will face the exact same situation as May, with the exact same options. For Brussels, a general election will be yet another footnote.

A majority of British people, and a majority in parliament, want some kind of functioning relationship with the EU post-Brexit. But the delusion that a defeat for May is somehow also a defeat for the EU could bring about the opposite of what that majority wants: reaching the end of Article 50 with no deal. To satisfy that majority, parliament must now choose between Norway and Remain.

The Norway option is tempting because it fulfills the Leave promise but keeps Britain economically tied to Europe — the damage will be limited. 

Remain can be reached by staging a second referendum.

The worst-case scenario is for MPs to believe that they are still playing poker, and move to call the EU's bluff. As Verhofstadt said last night: "What we will not let happen, deal or no deal, is that the mess in British politics is again imported into European politics."

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McDonald's lost a 'David versus Goliath' trademark battle over Big Macs to a small Irish rival called Supermac's

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mcdonalds supermac big man`

  • McDonald's has been stripped of its exclusive right to the "Big Mac" trademark in Europe.
  • It lost it after a challenge from a small Irish rival called Supermac's.
  • The conflict began when McDonald's asked European Union (EU) officials to prevent Supermac's opening outside of Ireland.
  • Supermac's doesn't sell a "Big Mac," but McDonald's said their name sounds too much like the iconic burger, and would give them an unfair advantage.
  • The EU Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO) threw out McDonald's argument, and said Supermac is free to expand.

McDonald’s has been defeated in a "David versus Goliath" trademark dispute over its rights to the "Big Mac" name, brought by a tiny Irish rival called Supermac's.

The European Union's Intellectual Property Office ruled that McDonald's does not have the exclusive right to "Big Mac" and the "Mc" prefix in Europe, after McDonald's tried to stop the Irish chain expanding into Europe. 

Supermac's has 116 stores, all in Ireland. It was founded in 1978, one year after McDonald's opened its first Irish branch. By number of outlets, it is 0.3% of the size of McDonald's.

A Canadian flag waves beside McDonalds fast food restaurant in Toronto, May 1, 2014.  REUTERS/Mark Blinch

McDonald's first took issue with the brand in 2017 after Supermac's tried to get permission to open stores in Great Britain and Europe, according to legal documents reviewed by Business Insider.

McDonald's claimed that a Supermac's expansion would be taking "unfair advantage of the distinctive character and repute" of the McDonald's brand, the "Big Mac" and "Mc" labels.

McDonald's has owned a trademark for "Big Mac" in the EU since 1996, EUIPO documents reviewed by Business Insider show. But in an April 2017 counter-complaint, Supermac's challenged the trademark, citing EU rules which say a trademark can be revoked if it "has not been put to genuine use."

Supermac's

On Tuesday, the EUIPO sided with Supermac's. Officials said McDonald's had not "proven genuine use of the contested EUTM ["Big Mac" and "Mc" trademarks] for any of the goods and services for which it is registered."

Therefore, the EUIPO said: "The application for revocation is wholly successful and the contested EUTM must be revoked in its entirety." 

This means Supermac's can start to open stores in Europe under its own name.

The ruling also allows other companies as well as McDonald’s to use the "Big Mac" name inside the EU. Supermac's does not have a burger called the "Big Mac."

Read more:Here's what McDonald's restaurants look like around the world

The ruling is effective immediately. McDonald's can also challenge it, the EUIPO said

On the EUIPO's trademark database the status of "Big Mac" trademark had been updated to say "cancellation pending."

Supermac's managing director Pat McDonagh told the Irish Examiner: "We knew when we took on this battle that it was a David versus Goliath scenario, but just because McDonald’s has deep pockets and we are relatively small in context doesn’t mean we weren’t going to fight our corner."

Pat McDonnagh

"It's been a long road, nearly four years, but it was worth it to help protect businesses that are trying to compete against faceless multinationals," he said.

McDonagh also told the Irish Independent: "It doesn't matter how big or how small you are, it's great that you can get a hearing from the European office.

"I'm delighted with the result; I was hopeful for a positive outcome - but not to the extent to which we won."

McDonald's has yet to respond to Business Insider's request for comment.

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Bank of America Merrill Lynch crushes with record quarterly earnings as trading takes smaller hit than peers (BAC)

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Brian Moynihan

Bank of America Merrill Lynch announced fourth-quarter earnings results Wednesday, handily beating expectations with $0.70 in adjusted earnings of per share and record net earnings of $7.3 billion.

Analysts had projected the bank to report adjust earnings of $0.63 per share.

Fixed-income trading revenues fell 15%, a smaller loss than peers Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase reported earlier this week.

Here are the highlights:

  • Revenues: $22.7 billion, beating expectations of $22.4 billion.
  • Net income: A record $7.3 billion, beating expectations of $6.3 billion, and up 39% from last year.
  • Consumer banking: Net income rose 52% to $3.3 billion, while revenues increased 10% to $9.9 billion.
  • Wealth management: Net income rose 43% to $1.1 billion, while revenues increased 7% to $5 billion.
  • Investment banking: Fees fell 5% to $1.3 billion, driven by lower debt underwriting and advisory.
  • Trading: Overall revenues down 6% to $2.5 billion. Fixed-income dropped 15% to $1.4 billion, while equities increased 11% to $1.1 billion.

“I am proud of our teammates who produced record earnings for the quarter and the year by driving responsible growth. Our teammates worked for our customers and delivered solid loan and deposit growth, and other activity, while managing risk well. Operating leverage based on disciplined expense management while investing in our future, solid asset quality, and loan and deposit growth drove this quarter’s results," CEO Brian Moynihan said in a statement. 

Bank of America's 6% drop in overall sales and trading revenues is modest compared with the losses reported at Citi and JPMorgan so far. 

Citigroup on Monday reported a 21% drop in fixed-income trading and 14% drop in trading overall. JPMorgan Chase posted its worst bond-trading results since the financial crisis.

"Bad volatility" wreaked havoc on the markets in December, and bank trading results have taken a hit as clients sat it out on the sideline for much of the fourth quarter. 

Goldman Sachs also reports earnings on Wednesday, and Morgan Stanley reports on Thursday.

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A $200 million marijuana VC breaks down how he picks what companies to invest in

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Cannabis

  • The dealmaker behind one of the most active marijuana venture capital funds describes his outlook for the industry in 2019.
  • Canopy Rivers, the venture arm of Canopy Growth, announced a $6.8 million investment into Greenhouse Juice Company on Monday, on top of participating in a $12 million funding round for marijuana analytics startup Headset earlier in January.
  • He gives his outlook on the cannabis industry and explains the investment themes he's watching. 

It's been a hot few weeks for venture capital deals in the marijuana industry, and one firm has been behind most of the headlines.

Canopy Rivers, the venture arm of marijuana cultivation giant Canopy Growth, has so far participated in a $12 million funding round for marijuana analytics startup Headset, invested $6.8 in convertible debt into Greenhouse Juice Company to develop CBD beverages, and landed an $80 million loan from two of Canada's largest banks for a joint venture — all in the last two weeks.

The firm has raised $200 million so far, but some of that has already been deployed, a Canopy Rivers spokesperson confirmed.

The Greenhouse deal, announced on Monday, falls into what Canopy River's VP of business development Narbe Alexandrian calls "wave three" of the nascent cannabis industry.

"We look at the cannabis industry as coming in waves," Alexandrian, a veteran of OMERS Ventures, Canada's largest VC fund, said in an interview. "Wave number one was cultivation, wave two is ancillary technology, wave three is CPG [consumer packaged goods], wave four is pharma, and wave five is mass-market, where you have your Coke and Pepsi-type oligopolies in play."

'If you talk to a beer company, they don't own any hops farms'

Right now, it's all about CPG, Alexandrian said. 

"We're really looking for brands in this new wave of cannabis," said Alexandrian. It comes down to simple supply-and-demand economics: being only a cultivator doesn't cut it — wholesale marijuana prices will eventually fall, and margins will collapse.

"If you talk to a beer company, they don't own any hops farms," said Alexandrian. "What they've developed is a strong marketing presence, and created a product that commands a premium because of the brand."

Read more: Marijuana could be the biggest growth opportunity for struggling beverage-makers as millennials ditch beer for pot

That's what led to the Greenhouse deal. Nominally an organic juice company, Greenhouse owns 15 brick-and-mortar stores as well as an e-commerce platform. But Alexandrian said they can easily plug CBD products into their suite.

"The technology behind how they develop their products is what really got us going," said Alexandrian.

CBD or cannabidiol is a non-psychoactive compound in marijuana that's become a trendy ingredient in food and beverages. The company aims to market CBD-containing products across Canada — and eventually, in every jurisdiction where the substance is legal. 

"They've done a fantastic job of creating a brand locally, and we think that can be replicated over and over again," said Alexandrian.

Creating the 'Nielsen' of cannabis

In order to make decisions about what products to develop, or what new markets to enter, they need data. That's where Canopy Rivers' Headset investment comes into play

"Our thesis behind that was: there's a lot of companies out there in the industry right now that are posting large growth and high revenue numbers, but they don't follow the same DNA as traditional CPG companies where you do two years of R&D before pushing out a product," said Alexandrian.

Because the cannabis industry is so new, there are scant data to base decisions off of, so companies just push out product and "hope someone buys it," said Alexandrian.

Headset wants to provide that data — what Alexandrian calls the "Nielsen" of cannabis — to help brands and manufacturers understand trends, customer habits, and what the market looks like before making costly decisions about developing new products.

Overall, Alexandrian says it's "such a greenfield" for investing in marijuana.

"If you believe like I do, that legalization is going to spread and the end of prohibition is inevitable in a lot of the industrial countries in the world, it's very early in the game and you can get a lot of value for both companies and shareholders," said Alexandrian.

Read more: Marijuana M&A is already hot in 2019, with a pot tech-vape tie-up worth $210 million

And that data is going to be crucial as more traditional CPG companies look to either make strategic investments or acquire marijuana companies outright as more markets open up. Expect these companies to become Headset's clients, the startup's CEO, Cy Scott, told Business Insider.

"We're getting a lot of interest right now from consumer-packaged-goods industry companies like beverage/alcohol, tobacco, pharma, and even financial services who are all interested in the cannabis industry," said Scott in an interview.

Already major food-and-beverage companies have either pursued joint ventures or taken equity stakes in marijuana companies.

Bill Newlands, the incoming CEO of Constellation Brands — the beverage maker behind Corona — said on the company's earnings call earlier in January that marijuana "represents one of the most significant global growth opportunities of the next decade and frankly, our lifetimes."

Last year, Constellation closed a $4 billion investment into Canopy Growth, paving the way for other major corporations to move into the industry. Molson Coors entered a joint venture with Hexo in August, and Heineken's Lagunitas Brand has developed a hoppy, marijuana-infused sparkling water beverage for the California market.

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Airbus CEO reveals why the company would be protected during an economic downturn

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Airbus CEO Tom Enders

  • Airbus CEO Tom Enders told reporters that the company's large order backlog will serve as a buffer against many of the ill effects of an economic downturn.
  • According to Enders, the company's 7,577-plane backlog will give Airbus the flexibility to move around production slots so deliveries aren't negatively affected.
  • The Airbus CEO was in Mobile, Alabama to celebrate the groundbreaking of the company's new Airbus A220 assembly plant. 

MOBILE, ALABAMA —With the potential of an economic slowdown on the rise, businesses around the world have been in preparation for such an event. 

Airbus CEO Tom Enders told reporters at the company's assembly plant in Mobile, Alabama on Wednesday that the success of past Airbus sales campaigns functions as a sort of a barrier against the ill effects of an economic downturn. 

"Obviously we follow very closely what's happening politically and economically around the world. We are a global business," Enders said at a press briefing. "But different from any other businesses, we have a huge order backlog in most of our products and that serves as a buffer in terms of regional and national downturns."

According to Enders, Airbus has experienced so many past years where the company's order intake far exceeded the number of aircraft it could build. As result, the long-time executive says that people shouldn't "sound the alarm" if Airbus has a year or two when they sell fewer planes than they build. 

At the end of 2018, Airbus Commerical Aircraft had a global backlog 7,577 planes which will require more than half a decade to work through. Of the backlog, 925 planes are from US customers. 

Instead, Enders says the focus should be on the company's ability to deliver aircraft. After all, it's when the airplane maker actually gets paid. 

Airbus A321 JetBlue sustainable jet fuel blendEven though an airline's ability to pay may be hindered by an economic slowdown, Airbus has enough financially stable clients that deliveries shouldn't be greatly affected. 

"If you look at the Airbus A320, for instance, we have so much overbooking already on the delivery slots," Enders told Business Insider. "During the last big downturn in 2008-2009, we had to shift a lot of delivery slots and postpone into the future for weaker airlines, on the other hand, we had a lot of airlines who were eager to get those earlier slots.

Read more: The amazing story of how the Airbus A320 became the Boeing 737's greatest rival.

"Today we are in a situation where if someone orders (a narrow body) Airbus Aircraft they have to wait in a queue for five years and that's not what people like," he added.

As a result, during an economic downturn, financially strong carriers with an immediate for airplanes will be able to get them in a more timely fashion while those who are less stable can delay delivery. 

Guillaume Faury Airbus a220 delta delivery 1999However, Enders went on to clarify that this buffer doesn't exist for all sectors of its commercial aircraft business. The A380 superjumbo program, for example, does not have an overbooking issue. 

Enders was in Mobile for the groundbreaking of the new Airbus A220 production line. It will be located next door to the company's existing Airbus A320-family assembly plant. 

Wednesday will likely Ender s's last big event in Mobile as Airbus CEO. The company announced last October that he will step down from the top job in October 2019 with current Airbus Commercial Aircraft president Guillaume Faury taking over as the new chief executive. 

SEE ALSO: We flew Aer Lingus from Dublin to New York to see if it's a hidden gem among Europe's best airlines. Here's the verdict

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This luxury hairbrush that costs $170 is the hill I'll die on — but my second favorite brush is only $10

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The Insider Picks team writes about stuff we think you'll like. Business Insider has affiliate partnerships, so we get a share of the revenue from your purchase.

mason

  • A $170 hairbrush might seem like an absurd expense, but it's one I firmly think is worth it.
  • I've had a Mason Pearson Hairbrush ($170) for over ten years and its unique combination of boar bristles, nylon spikes, and a rubber cushion make it the best hairbrush I've ever used.
  • Still, I understand why others might not be willing to spend that much, which is why I'm sharing my other favorite, a $10 Wet Brush.

Whether you know it or not, you probably have a hill you would die on — an unconventional opinion you hold so strongly you will stand by it no matter what. Maybe yours is that Raisin Bran is the best cereal of all time. Or that iPhones are overrated and Androids are the way to go. Or that sliced bread wasn't even that cool of an invention. Here at Insider Picks, we discuss our hills often — expensive products we will always splurge on, underrated products we think need some more recognition, things everyone else loves but we can't stand. I didn't think I had a hill, but in a pensive moment, I found mine — I think the $170 Mason Pearson hairbrush is totally worth the price. 

Call me crazy, but I will stand by this statement. Not only is this the best hairbrush I've ever used, but it's the only hairbrush I've consistently used for over ten years. Yes, this hairbrush has been with me for almost half of my life.

Why I'll die on the hill of my $170 hair brush:

Mason Pearson started making hairbrushes by hand in London in 1885, and today, the brushes are made using the same techniques and patents, with most of the work still being done by hand. The materials are all noticeably high quality, which I can confidently state given that my brush has lasted for 10 years so far.

What really makes this brush so special, though, is what it does for your hair. If you're prone to frizz, you know that brushing dry hair can be a nightmare, usually making your hair even frizzier than when you started. Mason Pearson brushes do no such thing. They actually work to make your hair smoother and shinier. The Junior Mixture Brush uses a combination of nylon and boar bristles that are super gentle, but strong enough to detangle wavy hair. The boar bristles distribute your hair's natural oils from root to tip, so you're left with glossy locks all around rather than concentrated, greasy roots. It's also gentle on my scalp and my strands — I don't have to painfully tug through knots to detangle, pulling out pieces of my already thin hair along the way. 

For my thin, semi-curly hair, this is the absolute best brush — no doubt about it. But, I realize $170 is a steep price to pay, and although this is my hill, it probably is not everyone's. That's why I'm also here to tell you about my favorite budget option, the Wet Brush.

hairbushes 3_4

Why this $10 Wet Brush is also worth mentioning:

So, a Wet Brush is not an exact dupe of the Mason Pearson since it doesn't have the same bristle structure, but it is the best budget hairbrush I've found. While the Mason Pearson brush works best on dry hair, the Wet Brush (as the name suggests) is made specifically for wet. 

The Wet Brush uses only nylon bristles, but like the Mason Pearson, they manage to detangle even the most difficult knots with ease, while still being gentle on your hair. This is thanks to Wet Brush's proprietary IntelliFlex technology.

Brushing your hair right when you hop out of the shower is pretty common, but what most people don't know is that your hair is most fragile when wet. So, tugging and pulling through tangled hair can be detrimental, creating breakage and split ends. The Wet Brush gently loosens knots so you don't damage your hair while you brush. It can certainly be used on dry hair, too, but this is the one I use when my hair is wet, and the Mason Pearson brush is reserved strictly for my dry locks.

I've been truly pleased at how my hair dries when I use my Wet Brush— it's wavy and full. Since my fine hair breaks easily, it's important to me that I use tools that work with my hair, not against it. Whether or not your hair is as fine as mine, it could probably still benefit from a hair brush that won't tug at it much after the shower, and that'll work just fine for dry hair as well.

The Bottom Line:

I'm not wavering. I still think the Mason Pearson brush is the best one around — it's my hill. It's the only brush I've found that keeps my thin, light-colored hair — which gets both really greasy and really frizzy — looking presentable even when I don't have time to wash it. Now it's an essential part of my daily routine that I can't live without.

If you think it's worth the splurge, I highly recommend it. Of course, that's totally up to you and your locks. If you do need a great hairbrush that won't set you back a pretty penny though, a Wet Brush is the best budget option and at only $10, it's a no-brainer for just about every hair type.

Shop the Mason Pearson Junior Mixture Nylon & Boar Bristle Hair Brush, available at Nordstrom, $170

Shop the Wet Brush Original Detangler, available at Amazon, $9

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BIG TECH IN HEALTHCARE: How Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft are shaking up healthcare — and what it means for the future of the industry (GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT)

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This is a preview of a research report from Business Insider Intelligence, Business Insider's premium research service. To learn more about Business Insider Intelligence, click here.

bii big tech in healthcare ALL Four

The healthcare industry is undergoing a profound transformation. Costs are skyrocketing, consumer demand for more accessible care is growing rapidly, and healthcare companies are unable to keep up. 

Health organizations are increasingly turning to tech companies to facilitate this transformation in care delivery and lower health expenditures. The potential for tech-led digital health initiatives to help healthcare providers and insurers deliver safer, more efficient, and cost-effective care is significant. For healthcare organizations of all types, the collection, analyses, and application of patient data can minimize avoidable service use, improve health outcomes, and promote patient independence, which can assuage swelling costs.

For their part, the "Big Four" tech companies — Google-parent Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft — see an opportunity to tap into the lucrative health market. These same players are accelerating their efforts to reshape healthcare by developing and collaborating on new tools for consumers, medical professionals, and insurers.

In this report, Business Insider Intelligence explores the key strengths and offerings the Big Four will bring to the healthcare industry, as well as their approaches into the market. We'll then explore how these services and solutions are creating opportunities for health systems and insurers. Finally, the report will outline the barriers that are inhibiting the adoption and usage of the Big Four tech companies’ offerings and how these barriers can be circumvented.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:

  • Tech companies’ expertise in data management and analysis, along with their significant compute power, can help support healthcare payers, health systems, and consumers by providing a broader overview of how health is accessed and delivered.
  • Each of the Big Four tech companies — vying for a piece of the lucrative healthcare market — is leaning on their specific field of expertise to develop tools and solutions for consumers, providers, and payers.
    • Alphabet is focused on leveraging its dominance in data storage and analytics to become the leader in population health.
    • Amazon is leaning on its experience as a distribution platform for medical supplies, and developing its AI-assistant Alexa as an in-home health concierge.
    • Apple is actively turning its consumer products into patient health hubs.
    • Microsoft is focusing on cloud storage and analytics to tap into precision medicine.
  • Health organizations can further tap into the opportunity presented by tech’s entry into healthcare by collaborating with tech giants to realize cost savings and bolster their top lines. But understanding how each tech giant is approaching healthcare is crucial.

 In full, the report:

  • Pinpoints the key themes and industry-wide shifts that are driving the transformation of healthcare in the US.
  • Defines the main healthcare businesses and strategies of the Big Four tech companies.
  • Highlights the biggest potential impacts of each of the Big Four’s healthcare strategies for health systems and insurers.
  • Discusses the potential barriers that will challenge the adoption of the Big Four tech companies’ initiatives and how these hurdles can be overcome.

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The Feds arrested a man accused of plotting terror attacks on the White House and other government buildings in Washington, DC

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fbi agent

  • Federal officials announced that the Joint Terrorism Task Force foiled a plot to attack the White House and other locations in Washington, DC.
  • A 21-year-old man, Hasher Taheb of Cumming, Georgia, was arrested and charged on Wednesday.
  • The arrest was the result of a yearlong investigation. Authorities said "all potential threats have been neutralized and under control from the inception of this case."
  • Investigators opened the case after receiving a tip about Taheb.

Federal officials announced Wednesday that the Joint Terrorism Task Force foiled a plot to attack the White House and other locations in Washington, DC.

A 21-year-old man, Hasher Taheb of Cumming, Georgia, was arrested and charged with "violating Title 18USC 844(f)(1) -- attempt to damage by means of an explosive any building owned, possessed, or leased by the United States or any department or agency thereof, or any institution or organization receiving federal financial assistance," U.S. Attorney Byung J. Pak said in a statement.

The plot included targeting the White House and other buildings with homemade explosives and an anti-tank rocket.

According to the complaint filed in the US District Court in the Northern District of Georgia, Taheb told a FBI informant that he wanted to travel to "hijra," which is reportedly a term for Islamic State-controlled territory. However, he did not have a passport, according to the complaint, and he told an undercover agent and informant that "if they were to go to another country, they would be one of many, but if they stayed in the United States, they could do more damage."

The complaint alleges that Taheb planned to sell his car in exchange for weapons, take a road trip to DC, and then attack prospective targets that included the "Washington Monument, the White House, the Lincoln Memorial, a specific synagogue."

The date for the scheduled attack was January 17, the complaint alleges, and he was arrested after he and an undercover agent and informant exchanged their cars for "three semi-automatic assault rifles, three explosive
devices with remote initiation, and one AT-4." The weapons were inert, according to the complaint.

The arrest was the result of a yearlong investigation, and according to Pak, "all potential threats have been neutralized and under control from the inception of this case."

"It is important to point out that this investigation and arrest were the direct result of a tip from the community, another example of how important it is to contact law enforcement if you see or hear something suspicious," FBI special agent Chris Hacker said in a statement.

Taheb was arrested on Wednesday in Gwinnett County, Georgia, and he appeared briefly in court. INSIDER contacted the US Attorney's Office in the Northern District of Georgia for more information and will update as necessary.

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NOW WATCH: I went on Beyoncé's 22-day diet — and I lost 15 pounds

The CEO behind 'Pokémon Go' says the company is cash-flow positive as it becomes worth almost $4 billion

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niantic ceo john hanke

  • Niantic, the developer of "Pokémon Go" and the forthcoming "Harry Potter: Wizards Unite," announced that it's raised $245 million in a deal valuing it at "almost $4 billion."
  • CEO John Hanke tells us that Niantic is cash-flow positive, but the money helps it bunker down for a possible venture capital crunch as it starts the years-long road towards a possible IPO.
  • The funding round brings in Samsung and Axiomatic Games as strategic investors — two companies that Hanke says are very important for helping Niantic realize its dream of bringing tech closer into the real world.
  • Meanwhile, Niantic is also investing in the Real World Platform, which will see it license big pieces of its tech to other developers. Hanke says that Niantic can be both a gaming studio and a developer tools company. 
  • "Pokémon Go," still Niantic's flagship game, has generated more than $2 billion in revenue since launch, says Hanke, and will see a further investment in real-world events for players.

 

Niantic, the developer of "Pokémon Go" and the forthcoming "Harry Potter: Wizards Unite," says that it's now valued at "almost $4 billion," following a $245 million funding round led by IVP, with participation from strategic investors Samsung and Axiomatic Gaming.

John Hanke, the CEO of Niantic, tells Business Insider that the company didn't need the money, strictly speaking: "Pokémon Go,"revitalized by a plethora of fan-requested features, has brought in over $2 billion of revenues since its 2016 launch, says Hanke. Furthermore, he says, Niantic is cash-flow positive, and still has lots of cash in the bank from previous investment rounds. 

Still, Hanke says, the time was right, as he foresees a crunch coming, where it'll be harder for companies like Niantic to raise investment capital amid a possible economic downturn. He's not necessarily against Niantic getting acquired, he says, and indeed, Niantic itself spun out of Google. Still, it's hard to guess how much control a would-be buyer would exert, and staying independent is the best way to ensure that Niantic gets to do what it wants to do. 

So while Niantic doesn't plan to IPO for "many more years," the cash helps make sure the company can weather any storms between now and then as an independent company.

“The best way to invent the future is to be around to build it," Hanke said.

Why these investors?

pokemon go trainer battle

Beyond the money, Hanke says that those strategic investors were a big reason why Niantic chose to go after new funding, serving to "cement relationships that were already in place." Now that these companies have a financial stake in Niantic, the lines of communication are much more open, and the company can benefit from their expertise.

Samsung, Hanke notes, is an expert at Android phones, and has made big investments in augmented reality — the technology for overlaying digital imagery over the real world, largely introduced to the mainstream by "Pokémon Go" itself. Otherwise, Hanke says that he sees promise in using Samsung's investments in smart sensors to bring augmented reality closer to the real world, as physical objects can have presences in the real world. 

Axiomatic, for its part, is an entertainment and sports management firm with a controlling stake in Team Liquid, a well-known esports organization, as well as an investment in "Fortnite" maker Epic Games. Co-chaired by Peter Guber, Bruce Karsh, Ted Leonsis, and Jeff Vinik — all of whom own one or more professional, major league sports teams — Hanke believes Axiomatic can bring a lot of expertise about how to engage fans and throw live events. 

Combined, Hanke says, these partners can help Niantic come up with ways to make real-world gaming events "much more fun." He notes that Niantic has been encouraged by the success of Community Day, a series of events thrown by the company to encourage "Pokémon Go" players to hit the streets en masse, and that the company is prioritizing figuring out ways to do more big events, indoors and outdoors — which dovetails with the company's goal of using tech to get people on their feet and exploring the world around them. 

Read more:The CEO behind 'Pokémon Go' explains why it's become such a phenomenon

“We will attempt to expand and continue to invest in events," Hanke says.

Here comes Harry Potter

The next big game launch for Niantic is "Harry Potter: Wizards Unite," developed in conjunction with Portkey Games, a subsidiary of Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment. All we know is that it's expected to launch this year, and Hanke was tight-lipped about sharing any details. 

He says that there's a simple reason why the stewards of "Pokémon" and "Harry Potter," two of the most valuable franchises on the planet, have chosen to go with Niantic: Nobody else puts the same level of polish or care into a smartphone game, let alone one that involves exploring the real world, and the extra effort pays off in fan engagement, he says. 

When the likes of The Pokémon Company or Warner Bros. come to Niantic, they're saying "let’s do it big, let’s do it right, let’s invest in it," says Hanke. “There’s no comparable companies."

Otherwise, Hanke hints that Niantic has more games coming, even as it invests further in its existing lineup, including "Pokémon Go" and "Ingress Prime."

The cloud connection

The other facet of Niantic's business is the Real World Platform, which the company teased in the middle of last year. 

Essentially, the Real World Platform will enable software developers to take advantage of the technology Niantic created for its own games. Developers will be able to use Niantic's augmented reality tech, as well as the company's secret sauce for multiplayer gaming and for connecting gameplay to real-world locations. 

"You put so much tech into those games, it makes sense to leverage it," says Hanke. 

pokemon go kyogre raid santa monica

However, Hanke also sees it as having a variety of other uses, which nobody has yet foreseen. That could be in business software, or consumer software, or even robotics — but not necessarily in gaming, entirely. The company has announced a $1 million contest for early developers on the Real World Platform.

He says that while the Real World Platform is a major focus for Niantic going forward, he thinks that it can be both a gaming studio and a developer tools company.

"We really want to be both," says Hanke. 

As he points out, Epic Games is both the developer of mega-phenomenon "Fortnite," and the proprietor of the popular Unreal Engine software for game developers. 

pokemon go trading

Pokémon, go on

For Hanke, 2018 was a pivotal year for "Pokémon Go," which he says has finally become the game Niantic envisioned all along.

In the last year, Niantic has introduced long-awaited features to "Pokémon Go," including Pokémon battling and trading with friends. In November, too, Nintendo launched "Pokémon: Let's Go" for the Nintendo Switch, which offers an integration with "Pokémon Go."

All of this has led to Pokémon Go seeing a resurgence in popularity. But it took a great deal of effort within the company.

Niantic spent the months after its rocky 2016 launch"on our heels," trying to patch the game up on the fly.

He says that 2017 was characterized by taking a step back, making new hires, and building a plan. But 2018 was when the team achieved a "regular pace of updates," which he says will carry into 2019. Player engagement, for instance, was way up in 2018 from 2017. And that's giving Hanke optimism for the new year.

As it continues this goodwill tour with fans, Hanke says that Niantic keeps up with the "Pokémon Go" community via Reddit. While Hanke says that Niantic tries not to let fan feedback drive its overall product strategy, he says that it's very useful in fine-tuning an idea once it's out. When Pokémon trading and battling came out, Hanke says, fans highlighted all kinds of little problems that Niantic had missed in-house, guiding it to solutions.

Finally, Hanke says that Nintendo and the Pokémon Company — the Nintendo joint venture that owns the trademark — have been very pleased with both "Pokémon Go" and "Pokémon: Let's Go," and are looking for more "synergies" between the game and the core franchise. That's good news for Niantic, too, Hanke says. 

"We've benefitted in a lot of ways," says Hanke.

SEE ALSO: Apple is about to have a big year — here's what to expect it to launch in 2019

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Mueller dropped an intriguing hint about where the Russia probe is headed in a new court filing

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Robert Mueller

  • The special counsel Robert Mueller is zeroing in on a series of conversations between former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and former Russian intelligence operative Konstantin Kilimnik that took place between August 2016 and March 2018.
  • It's unclear what the conversations specifically focused on because much of the information in the court filing is redacted.
  • But both Manafort and Kilimnik have previously acknowledged that they met in person on August 2, 2016.
  • Manafort said he and Kilimnik discussed the Trump campaign and the recent hack of the Democratic National Committee during the meeting on August 2, 2016.
  • Kilimnik said they did not discuss the campaign but talked about "current news" and "unpaid bills."
  • Shortly after the August meeting, a private jet linked to the Russian-Ukrainian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, whom Manafort was indebted to, arrived in the US for less than 24 hours.

The special counsel Robert Mueller's office submitted an extensive 31-page court filing late Tuesday that offers an unprecedented window into the alleged lies that Paul Manafort, the former chairman of President Donald Trump's campaign, told prosecutors after pleading guilty in the Russia investigation last year.

Much of Tuesday's court filing is redacted, as is an accompanying document containing approximately 70 exhibits.

But prosecutors did reveal some intriguing details about Manafort's dealings with investigators and the grand jury that could offer hints about where the Russia probe is headed.

For one, they reaffirmed that Manafort testified to the grand jury about his communications with the former Russian intelligence operative Konstantin Kilimnik. According to the filing, prosecutors are interested in conversations Manafort and Kilimnik had about a certain topic from August 2, 2016 until March 2018. Much of the information about their interactions about this topic was redacted in the filing.

Several of their discussions were in person, prosecutors said.

Manafort has previously acknowledged that he met with Kilimnik in May and August of 2016.

Three days before the August meeting with Manafort, Kilimnik wrote in an email to the Trump campaign chairman that he had "met today with the guy who gave you your biggest black caviar jar several years ago," a reference to the Russian-Ukrainian oligarch Oleg Deripaska and loans that he had given to Manafort.

"We spent about 5 hours talking about his story, and I have several important messages from him to you," Kilimnik wrote, adding, "I need about two hours because it is a long caviar story to tell."

Manafort is known to have offered Deripaska "private briefings" about the Trump campaign beginning in April 2016 and continuing until at least July. Former intelligence officials told INSIDER the offer appeared to be part of an effort by Manafort to resolve a longstanding financial dispute with Deripaska.

Manafort said he and Kilimnik discussed the Trump campaign and the recent hack of the Democratic National Committee during the meeting on August 2, 2016. Kilimnik, meanwhile, said they did not discuss the campaign but talked about "current news" and "unpaid bills."

Shortly after the August 2 meeting, a jet linked to Deripaska arrived in the US and landed in Newark, New Jersey. It was in the US for less than 24 hours.

Read more:Manafort's lawyers made a formatting error in a new court filing and accidentally revealed a slew of bombshells about his alleged lies to Mueller

oleg deripaska

In addition to misleading investigators about his meetings with Kilimnik, Manafort is also accused of lying about sharing confidential Trump campaign polling data with the former Russian intelligence operative, and discussing a Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" with him.

Mueller's work with the grand jury in the FBI's inquiry into Russian election interference is typically shrouded in mystery. But the public has slowly learned the details of Manafort's cooperation with prosecutors since November, when Mueller first accused Manafort of lying to investigators in violation of his plea deal.

In December, the special counsel said in a court filing that Manafort told "discernible lies" about multiple topics, including his interactions with Kilimnik; a $125,000 payment made to a firm related to a debt Manafort had incurred; his communications with Trump administration officials; and information relevant to another Justice Department investigation.

Earlier this month, Manafort's lawyers made a formatting error in a court filing and accidentally unsealed even more information about those alleged lies, which they said were told unintentionally.

This week, Mueller revealed that Kilimnik, in particular, is central to several threads in the Russia investigation, which is examining whether the Trump campaign colluded with Moscow to tilt the race in his favor, and whether Trump sought to obstruct justice when he fired FBI director James Comey in 2017.

The New York Times reported last weekend that Comey's firing also prompted the bureau to launch a separate counterintelligence investigation into whether Trump is a witting or unwitting agent of the Russian government.

SEE ALSO: Manafort's lawyers made a formatting error in a new court filing and accidentally revealed a slew of bombshells about his alleged lies to Mueller

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